According to the gossip pages in the Brussels-based English language newspaper, European Voice, former Belgian PM, Guy Verhofstadt emerges as an early front runner to lead the Alliance of Liberal and Democrats group (or ALDE) after next June’s elections to the European Parliament.
It is widely expected that Graham Watson after several years leading the group will stand down as a part of his bid to be elected to the European Parliament’s top job of President. Whilst most expect his chances of achieving this to be slim (another right-left carve up of the top jobs is on the cards), it does throw up the question of who in turn will lead the increasingly pivotal Liberal (and Democrat) group after June.
There are, however, several reasons why in my view Verhofstadt won’t get the job and why the smart money will look to back a different candidate.
Firstly, he is a newcomer to the European Parliament. Whatever his background, there will be enormous resentment that an outsider can come into the group and take over. There is no recent precedent for that in the Liberal group. The only other recent former PM to come into the ALDE group has been Anneli Jätteenmäki, who is not even a Committee Chair.
Further, there is a no track record of successful outsiders in the Europeans Parliament. In fact quite the opposite. Joseph Borrell in his first term as an MEP was immediately thrust into the role of President of the Parliament and is widely considered to be the poorest occupant of the post in recent years.
There is also a view that Verhofstadt just wants a job with a European dimension and doesn’t really mind which one it is. After all, even just a couple of months ago, he was being touted as a possible replacement as the Commission President. I think to win over ALDE MEPs he would have to show a commitment to the European Parliament over and above all other ambitions.
Secondly, he is a man in suit. There is a strong lobby in the Liberal group that is urging for the appointment of a woman to one of the top posts in the EU institutions when they come up later this year. (Liberal Democrat Voice carried once such piece from three ALDE female MEPs just a day or so ago). The idea that a man should nevertheless get to be leader of the political group most strongly advocating this ‘gender balance’ would open the Liberals to accusations of hypocrisy.
Thirdly – federalism. Despite its pro-European credentials, the Liberal group is not settled on further integration. There will be many in the UK Liberal Democrats, for example, who would feel it sends absolutely the wrong message ahead of the European Parliament elections to elect as the leader such a fervent federalist. Verhofstadt is a federalist which is why he has been overlooked for the post of Commission President in the past and will be again the future.
The list of Verhofstadt supporters in the ALDE group seems small and it is more a case of whose not on it rather than who is on it. He is said to have upset the Dutch VVD by describing them as ‘illiberal’ and the Germans are not mad keen either, given his federalist zeal.
Who will get the job of ALDE leader remains uncertain at this stage. As a betting man, I am keeping hold of money until after the ALDE group meeting in London at the end of April. I think by then an obvious candidate will emerge. You may draw your own conclusions from what I said above about some of the characteristics the new leader will have.
Tags: ALDE, Anneli Jätteenmäki, Borrell, European Parliament, Graham Watson, Liberals, Verhofstadt, VVD
